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Tom Wojcik’s report, based on figures through 26 September 2026, traces how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is affecting oil markets, fuel availability and fertiliser supplies. It also describes pressure on European potato harvests, while warning that food impacts may deepen into 2027. The scale and timing of those effects remain uncertain.
With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down by more than 90 percent, a report by Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces how the disruption is affecting oil prices, fuel supplies and fertiliser-dependent harvests. The report, using figures through 26 September 2026, describes a chain of pressures stretching from the Gulf to European fuel stations and farms, while the eventual effect on food supplies remains uncertain.
The report says US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in late February and that Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. The International Energy Agency describes the resulting disruption as the largest supply disruption the oil market has ever seen. A fragile ceasefire briefly pulled prices back to pre-war levels in early summer, but it later broke down. Brent crude was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on 24 September.
On 22 September, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade, the report says. Washington rejected it. The report also says the route around the Gulf faces risks at the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandab chokepoint, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month. It does not provide further detail about the port seizure.
The oil shock has also pushed up tanker rates. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF, which tracks crude tanker-hiring costs, rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for the year by early September. Some supertanker day rates rose from below $100,000 before the war to about $860,000 on 10 September. The fund is small, and its manager says rates would fall if the strait reopened.
Fuel Costs Reach Farms and Drivers
The report’s central point is that a shipping disruption can affect several parts of daily life at once. Oil prices influence transport costs, while the strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. If fertiliser is delayed or scarce, farmers may miss the window when it can support a crop. The full effect may show up only when harvests arrive, leaving consumers and food aid systems exposed to delayed price and supply pressures.
The report cites the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s warning that fertiliser scarcity could cut yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is an estimate of a possible consequence, not a confirmed count of people already affected by the current disruption.
For drivers, the report gives France as an example of how pricing policy and limited supply flexibility can interact. On 20 September, 15 percent of French fuel stations had run out of petrol or diesel, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The French government ruled out a national shortage. About nine in ten of the stations reporting no fuel belonged to TotalEnergies, which capped petrol at €1.99 a litre. Drivers seeking lower prices drained those stations faster than deliveries could replenish them, according to the report.
A Shock Meets Thin Reserves
Wojcik frames the story through Poland’s exposure to regional and global pressures: the country borders Ukraine, relies on coal and imported gas for heating, and is increasing military spending using borrowed money. His wider argument is that countries and businesses have traded stockpiles and spare capacity for cheaper, more concentrated supply chains. The report presents that as the author’s analysis of why several disruptions can compound, rather than as a separately measured finding.
Other pressures cited in the report include Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. The International Energy Agency counts at least 70 refinery strikes this year, and the report says Russian refining output has fallen to a two-decade low. Half of Russia’s six largest diesel plants cut or halted output in September, while Moscow restricted fuel exports. US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on 10 September. The report says the US president called Kyiv to ask it to stop targeting diesel facilities.
European potato production illustrates how a supply shock can land on an already unsettled market. After a 2025 glut, Polish growers harvested about 7 million tonnes of potatoes, 18 percent more than the year before, and some farmers were selling below cost by spring. Growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany then planted 14 percent less. Five heatwaves and drought followed; their growers’ organisation expects a harvest 25 percent smaller. In Belgium, the report says processing potato prices rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited in Tom Wojcik’s report
The Harvest Impact Is Still Developing
The report describes risks and estimates, but the eventual scale of the food impact is not yet known. The FAO warning concerns tighter supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; actual harvest results and food price effects will depend on how much fertiliser reaches farms, when it arrives and how weather affects crops. The report does not give a country-by-country estimate of losses attributable to the Hormuz closure.
Fuel availability also varies by place and measurement. France’s official station count records a site as out only when it has no petrol of any grade or no diesel, so it may not capture every local gap. The government ruled out a national shortage, and the report attributes most recorded outages to demand at TotalEnergies stations with capped prices. It does not establish how quickly supplies returned to those pumps.
The proposed ceasefire and reopening plan was rejected, and the report says one account had the US president expecting bombing to resume after November’s midterm elections. It provides no confirmation that further military action will occur. Whether tanker traffic resumes, and how shipping rates respond, remain open questions; the fund manager cited in the report says rates would fall if the strait reopened.
Reopening Talks and Harvest Reports
The immediate marker is whether Iran and Washington return to negotiations over a ceasefire and the strait. A phased reopening was part of Iran’s 22 September proposal, but Washington rejected it. No agreement or reopening timetable is confirmed in the report, so oil prices and tanker rates remain exposed to developments around the Gulf and the Red Sea route.
Food effects will become clearer as later 2026 and 2027 harvests are measured. The report points to fertiliser availability, crop yields and the potato harvest as indicators to watch. For consumers and aid organisations, those results will show whether current transport and input pressures translate into sustained supply constraints or higher food costs.
Further fuel data will also help distinguish local shortages from broader supply problems. In France, updated station figures and replenishment rates would show whether the September gaps eased. The report’s figures run through 26 September 2026; it does not provide later updates on fuel availability, harvests, diplomacy or military operations.
Key Questions
What happened at the Strait of Hormuz?
According to the report, Iran has kept the strait closed since March using drones, missiles, mines and small boats. Tanker traffic through it has fallen by more than 90 percent.
How could the closure affect food supplies?
The strait normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to the report. The FAO warns that scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027; the eventual effects are not yet known.
Was France running out of fuel?
The French government ruled out a national shortage. On 20 September, 15 percent of stations were reported out of petrol or diesel, with most of those stations belonging to TotalEnergies, according to the report.
What remains uncertain?
The report does not establish when the strait might reopen, whether military operations will resume, or how large the eventual harvest and food price effects will be. Its figures are current through 26 September 2026.
Source: hn
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